1 Anxious Liberal


What To Watch For Tonight
May 2, 2011, 4:13 pm
Filed under: Democratizing the Liberal Party

In my opinion, the following regions are going to go almost as predicted: Atlantic Canada, Prairies, Alberta and British Columbia.  That leaves Ontario and Quebec, which are so volatile it’s hard to say how the efficiency of votes will work today.  In Quebec the real story is whether the efficiency of the NDP votes will give them more seats than expected.  In Ontario the real story is whether the efficiency of the Conservative votes will give them more seats than expected.  I’ve picked 20 seats to watch in total, 13 in Quebec and 7 in Ontario.  That’s lopsided mostly because I believe the NDP has the greater potential for an unexpected upswing than the Conservatives do.  And yes, Michael Ignatieff’s own riding is in play.

Listed below are the thirteen ridings to watch in Quebec.  If the NDP are losing almost all of them they may still do as predicted in Quebec, but don’t expect the unexpected – but they still should be competitive in most of them or something has gone wrong.  If the NDP are leading in 15-25% then NDP are likely going to do better than expect in Quebec (that means 2 or 3 ridings).  If the NDP are leading in 30-40% then they are going to do better than expected (that means 4 or 5 ridings).  If the NDP are leading in 45-55% then they are going to do very well (that means 6 or 7 ridings).  If they are leading in 60% or more than watch out (that means 8 ridings)!

Abitibi Baie-James Nunavik Eeyou

Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel

Beauharnois-Salaberry

Chambly-Borduas

La Point-de-l’Ile

Lac-Saint-Louis

Laurier-Sainte-Marie

Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere

Louis-Hebert

Montcalm

Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques

Terrebonne-Blainville

Trois-Rivieres

Vaudreuil-Soulanges

My prediction is that despite everyone believing to the contrary, the NDP will take at least 4 or 5 of these ridings.

Listed below are the seven ridings to watch in Ontario.  If the Conservatives are losing almost all of them they may still do as predicted in Ontario, but don’t expect the unexpected – but they still should be competitive in most of them or something has gone wrong.  If the Conservatives are leading in 15-25% then the Conservatives are likely going to do better than expect in Ontario (that means 1 or 2 ridings).  If the Conservatives are leading in 30-40% then they are going to do better than expected (that means 2 or 3 ridings).  If the Conservatives are leading in 45-55% then they are going to do very well (that means 3 or 4 ridings).  If they are leading in 60% or more than watch out (that means 4 ridings or more)!  (With the lower number to watch there’s more overlap in the gradiation.)  Ignatieff’s own riding will be the most interesting, as he could lose it!

Brampton-Springdale

Don Valley West

Elginton-Lawrence

London North Centre

Mississauga South

Oshawa

York Centre

My prediction is that the Conservatives might take 2 of these, maybe even three, but they might also lose unexpected ridings like Essex.

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